A new poll conducted by Ipsos Reid Public Affairs (taken April 4th to 10th, 2007) shows that the BC Liberal government and Premier Gordon Campbell are enjoying their best approval ratings since they were first elected in 2001.

Premier Campbell's Approval Rating at Highest Level in Six Years

The approval rating of the performance of Premier Campbell is at its highest level since 2001 (53%), a 7% increase since September.

BC Liberal Government Approval Rating Hits New High

Nearly six-in-ten (58%) British Columbians approve of the performance of the BC Liberal government, the highest since 2001.

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MEDIA COMMENTARY

Poll says B.C. Liberals would win election
49% of voters would return Liberals to power
Miro Cernetig, Vancouver Sun

Published: Tuesday, April 17, 2007

VICTORIA -- The provincial Liberal Party has opened up a wide lead over the New Democratic Party, with a poll released Monday showing the governing party now in a position to glide to a large majority if an election were held today.

The Ipsos Reid poll found that Liberals have the support of 49 per cent of voters, up four percentage points since December. The NDP has declined to 32 per cent, down four percentage points. It is still only half-way through the current government, with the next election to be called in May, 2009 -- an eternity in politics in which public opinion could shift.

But the poll is a blow to NDP leader Carole James or her strategists.

In recent months they have tried to reverse their party's fortunes by shaking up staff and taking a harder rhetorical line against the Liberals and Premier Gordon Campbell. James' promise of civility in the legislature has been strained in recent weeks by constant attacks on "the Gordon Campbell government" as untrustworthy and looking after its political friends at taxpayers' expense.

Despite James' tougher style, however, the poll casts doubt on whether it's working.

Her leadership has long been bolstered by the fact she commands a personal popularity with voters that ranks above both her party's and the premier. But for the first time since she was elected in 2005, taking her shattered party from three MLAs to 33 and official opposition status, her personal popularity has sunk below that of Campbell.

The poll -- which surveyed 800 British Columbians -- shows that James' approval rating dropped eight percentage points over the last four months, with 51 per cent of respondents supporting her leadership. That is down from a high of 61 per cent in December, 2005. Campbell's approval rating now sits at 53 per cent, up three points from December. In December 2005, Campbell's approval rating reached 44 per cent.

It's only a slight difference when taken as a snapshot. Both party leaders are statistically tied in approval ratings given the poll's margin of error of 3.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20. But the trend line of this and past surveys, which strategists more closely watch, clearly favours the Liberals and it also may weaken James' hold on the NDP leadership, Ipsos Reid vice-president Kyle Braid says.

"It allows those who want to question James' leadership to do so quite loudly," said Braid. "She's lost all the ground that she gained in her performance in the last election campaign."

There have been no public criticisms of the NDP leader since she was elected, but the party is known for its often brutal backroom politics when it is not faring well in the polls.

That may be exacerbated by the survey's finding that the Liberals' support is nearing the heights when the Liberals swept to power in 2001, reducing the NDP to just two MLAs. (A third seat was won by the NDP in a byelection, bringing their caucus to three MLAs).

"Nearly six in ten (58 per cent, up two points) British Columbians say they approve of the overall performance of the B.C. Liberal government," said Ipsos in its survey. "A slight majority [53 per cent, up three points] say they approve of Gordon Campbell's performance as Premier.

"Both of these approval ratings are the highest since very early in the B.C. Liberals' first mandate [70 per cent approval in Sept. 2001 for both government and premier]."

Political observers also see the poll as a further sign the NDP in opposition is failing to grab the imagination of voters.

"It confirms what most observers see as the current situation in B.C. politics," said University of Victoria political scientist Norman Ruff. "The NDP are treading water and, as the numbers suggest, if you tread too long, you start to sink.

"The NDP has to be concerned," said Ruff. "They're drifting and don't come across as a team with a clear sense of direction. Some individual members are effective in the house but the party is coming across as a very disparate group of individuals."

Part of the B.C. Liberals' success in the popularity polls is that Premier Campbell has taken his government to the middle ground in its second term. He has called for a new relationship with aboriginals, has embraced the fight against global warming and even set up scholarships for the B.C. civil service.

"We've seen a much more pragmatic Campbell," said Ruff. "People are more comfortable with Campbell and the more pragmatic face he has shown since 2005."